Living nightmare not yet affecting labor market statistics
As I write this, the DJIA is down ~1000 points and markets have been open only half an hour. However, stocks are generally forward-looking while the jobs numbers are "current" conditions with a lag. And as of last month, things were normal.
The latest "core" (U3 minus layoffs) unemployment rate continues to be consistent with a return to the pre-stimulus equilibrium path.
The "noise floor" in initial claims continues to be a good if completely uninformative hypothesis:
The various JOLTS measures were all in the initial stages of turning around — I'll just show NSA job openings rate as the picture is consistent across them all.
The estimate of the current "dynamic equilibrium" (lines of constant slope on the log graph) is basically as far below the pre-pandemic path as the pre-pandemic path was below the pre-Great Recession path. As I've said previously, this is a significant deterioration in the labor market that seems to have been met with a collective "meh" (unless you count the US descent into fascism [1]).
[1] I really don't, but won't begrudge the theory. As I put it on bsky, IMO the US descent into fascism is the culmination of the reaction to the Civil Rights Act.
